“There is always inequality in life. Some men are killed in a war and some men are wounded and some men never leave the country. Life is unfair.” — John F. Kennedy [True, but depressing] 

First the data (Evening April 8):

The number of confirmed U.S. cases currently exceeds 430,000. Trends based on a simple 4th order trend curve continue on track to reach ~600,000 by Easter and ~1,250,000 by the end of April. Note that for the first time the trend curve is beginning to show a slight “bend” toward the end of April. This is good news. The current estimated fatality rate is ~3.43%, corresponding to over 40,000 deaths by April 30. This appears to be in line with the ~60,000 total fatalities from this first wave currently predicted by the accepted UW IMHE model.
The other thing we might observe over the past dozen or so posts is that the fatality rate has been steadily increasing. This is unexpected since additional testing should increase the denominator. The reason for this is unclear. As usual we need more data.

For purposes of illustration the period of time covered by the following vignette has been considerably shortened relative to our current situation. And, well, the participants have a considerably shorter lifespan than people. Hopefully this will be one of our last “gloomy” posts. Just saying, in case you’re in a good mood.

Distancing
Weird, huh? 
What? 
This six feet apart thing. 
At least they didn’t try to fit us with masks. 
Sheesh. I know. They tried it on Elsie. No go. 
Where is she anyway? 
Over there by the fence, see? 
Let’s mosey on over. 
Can’t. Six feet. 
Right. I hope that kid doesn’t come by again tonight. 
Kid? 
You know, the one that tried to tip me. 
Mmm. Lucky you didn’t fall. 
Luck? Listen, I’ve still got four strong legs. 
Sure, sure. Hope this whole plague thing gets over pretty soon. 
I know. They said if we stay like this for 2 weeks we’ll be okay. 
So they said. It’s been 3 weeks.
Maybe they just want to make sure we stay safe. 
I suppose so — none of us has gotten sick. 
Except Mamie. You hear about Mamie? 
Sad. Recovered but she dried right up. 
Well, she… Hey, watch out, here comes the kid. 
Uh oh. Oh, wait — looks like he’s herding everyone together. 
Finally! 
You stay healthy now. 
You too. See ya.

=== Four weeks later === 
It’s been a while. Haven’t seen you around. 
I know. Good to see you. 
Everyone healthy in your corner of the barn? 
Oh yeah. Everything’s back to normal. Up at dawn… 
How many ended up catching it? 
Just Mamie. Otherwise that six foot deal worked I guess. 
So… we have herd immunity then. 
… I don’t think that means what you think it means. 
Oh? 
It means… hey, who’s that? 
Who? Where? 
Over there, next to Elsie. 
Oh her. She’s new. From over to the Schmitt place. 
Way down Crossover road? Next county over? 
Yeah. She came in this morning with a few others. 
She looks nice. Let’s go say hi.

=== One week later === 
How’re you doing? 
Okay I think. You hear about poor Elsie? 
No. What? 
She caught it. 
How? 
No one knows.

=== One week later === 
I’m so sorry. 
It’s okay. You didn’t know. 
It was that new one wasn’t it? From Schmitt’s? 
Pretty sure. She was everywhere. So friendly. 
How many of us got it? 
Maybe three out of four. 
But the six feet apart… we… 
Yeah. No. That was the plan, but…
It didn’t work.
Well, actually it did. We didn’t get sick.
But now we are. I don’t get it.

Something to do with flattening a curve.
A curve. And now what?
Now they’re giving shots to all the calves. 
Shots? 
Before they join the herd. 
What kind of shots? 
I heard the kid call it a vaccine. 
Vaccine? What does it do? 
Makes you safe, so you don’t catch it. 
So it’ll make us get better? You and me? All of us? 
Mmm… 
We do get the shot, don’t we? 
Mmm… 
Wait. You mean just the calves? What about us? 
Well, there’s a good chance we’ll be okay. 
A good chance. Great. Then what? 
Then we’ll be immune – a contributor to herd immunity. 
And if we’re not okay? 
Yeah, there is that. 
 
Oscar
I don’t know what that story means. 
You’re only two. You wouldn’t understand. 
Oh.
Everyone stays away from everyone else for a while. 
I thought it was about cows. 
It was. Just make believe they’re people. 
Make-believe people? But … um… it’s very compilcake id.
Compli… Yes it is. Even lots of big people don’t understand. 
For how long do the make-believe boys stay away? 
And girls. Maybe a few weeks. 
Thursday? Garbage truck day? 
No. Longer. 
What happens then? 
Nothing. 
Nothing? … … I’m going to go play.
Wait, no. It’s good that nothing happens. They are all happy. 
Can I have a cookie? 
In a minute. Just a little bit more.
But… 
Then someone comes along and everyone gets sick. 
I don’t like this story anymore. 
But after, almost everyone gets better again. Happy. 
Everyone? 
Well…, not everyone. Almost everyone. 
You and daddy? … And me? 
Yes, yes, we’ll all be fine. 
And grandma and grandpa too?