Originally published 08-Mar-2020

The first 4 posts were sent as emails to family and friends starting about March 8. The intent was to try to lend some statistical and reliable information to help them formulate a context for preparation and understanding of what was happening and what was likely to come. My main point was that, based on the data, this things looks real. Now that it is real and a lot of the information in these posts is more broadly available I plan, going forward, to adapt and attempt to provide some level of substantiation to what everyone is hearing.
Pat

     Okay, now that I have your attention —- 🤓 —- I found this picture and it got me to thinking….

At the bottom of this post is a screenshot of Saturday coronavirus data from Johns Hopkins. The important part is the yellow curve in the lower right corner showing the number of infections outside of China over time. This is known as an exponential curve. A good description is the old story of getting a penny, then the next day 2 pennies, then 4 pennies, then 8, etc. After a month you will have about a billion pennies (true!). The formula is 2 to the nth power. It’s not clear if this exactly matches the virus curve, but could be close. If each person with the virus infects 2 others — which current data shows (so-called Ro factor) — then it may match pretty closely. This is why they are urging people to stay home, avoid crowds, etc.

     Unfortunately (based on my analysis) containment at this point is not likely to help very much anymore. It’s simply too late. Test kits should have been manufactured and distributed in the US (and elsewhere) in December/January. Containment and testing will soon (maybe weeks, a month or so?) become less and less effective and the biggest problem is that hospitals will quickly become overwhelmed, almost “overnight.” The whole idea behind testing is that containment can be used to “level” out demands on health care resources (e.g., hospitals) over time. It is now too late for this to be effective.

     So what comes next will likely evoke images of the 1918 Spanish flu, which out of curiosity I have studied quite bit in the past. Google some images of it. Scary stuff. And they did not have international air travel in those days to exacerbate the situation, though they did have masses of soldiers – the most vulnerable age group – moving around the world.

     China has enacted the most stringent containment efforts to date, shutting down whole cities, etc. But ultimately “nature will win” – the virus has “escaped” into other countries across the globe. And I would not trust Chinese data too much in any case, as they are likely downplaying statistics in order to try to ward off panic. The US government does not generally operate with such a strong hand, but this could end up making the situation here much worse. On the other hand, one could envision federal/state governments stepping in at some point with some sort(s) of forced quarantine and/or deployment of military resources to maintain order and provide readily-fieldable military medical resources.

     So, what to do? Try not to panic (though admittedly this little write-up probably doesn’t help a whole lot in that regard). Avoid crowds. Wearing a non-N95 mask may offer some help (if you tolerate wearing it for any length of time). And a “regular” mask offers very little self-protection, but, if you are a carrier, may help spreading the virus to others. Pay attention to reliable sources. The only data sources I would trust right now are WHO, CDC, individual state & local health authorities, and other reputable organizations/institutions (like Johns Hopkins and other universities & university hospitals). I would tend not to trust Washington or other political sources, especially given that they continue to misrepresent true statistics — and their planning and execution seems to be staggeringly poor and ineffective to date.

     The likelihood of a vaccine “soon” is fantasy. Believe internationally recognized expert Dr. Anthony Fouci when he says 12-18 months. Very smart experienced epidemiologist. The last thing you want is a poorly-tested vaccine that makes matters worse. On the other hand, current statistics indicate that the virus is most lethal to the older among us — over 60 so. So little kids and most adults may very well become infected but exhibit little more than regular flu-like symptoms. However — (even if they show NO symptoms) they can still transmit the virus to others like the elderly and those with weak immune systems.

     And then there’s the financial world impact. My sense is that we “ain’t seen nuthin’ yet.” High volatility, but no clear bottom to the market. And given the global nature of trade, severe impacts will likely take more than a little time to fade. “Normal” crashes recover fairly quickly (6-12 months or so). But this situation is not “normal.” It is not a crash due to economics, but rather due to an external force – but which is/will in time affect economic fundamentals (trade, manufacturing, tourism, etc.) … So cash in a shoebox under the bed might not be a bad idea for now. [Disclaimer – I am not a financial expert. Will probably need to keep working until the (uninfected) cows come home…]

     So… what started out to be a quick post has grown to be quite lengthy. My apologies. But I really think that this is “real.” It is not Y2K or 911, or a hurricane or an earthquake. It is not a “one-off.” It is a pandemic involving over 100 countries as of this writing. It spreads. Over time. My assessment right now is based on following the pandemic (which it is, even if the UN has not yet labelled it as such) since its inception and my background in studying previous outbreaks. I am not a medical expert but do know something (40 years’ worth) about data and growth curves, so there’s that.

     Finally, Here’s a back-of-the-envelope calculation. Assume a fatality rate = 2% (currently estimated at 1%-3%), US population 331 million, infection rate (say): 20% of population becomes infected (Spanish flu was ~30% world-wide). Calculation: .02 x .20 x 331,000,000 = 1.34 million deaths. Regular flu-season deaths < 100,000. Yeah, not Y2K…

     Currently the data that I have reviewed shows the epidemic to be doubling every 3-4 days. Last Wednesday there were about 128 confirmed cases in the U.S. By Friday it had doubled to about 250. By today (Sunday) it had doubled again to about 500. Seems to be following the 1,2,4,8-penny formula above. At this rate we could expect to see ~1,000 this coming Wednesday and ~2,000 next weekend, etc. And this doesn’t count the huge “bump” that will appear as more widespread testing results are reported. That could significantly increase these numbers. Sooner or later the government will (attempt to) close down more than schools and stadiums. Preview: Just saw this from BBC: “Coronavirus: Northern Italy to ‘quarantine 16 million people’” https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-51787238. So… things will likely get worse before they get better (and no, I’m not a “prepper!”). Sigh…

     This not intended to panic you (really!). Data is data and viruses don’t care. The upshot is that it might not be a bad idea to stay close to home for the time being.

      I will post more information as it comes along. Stay healthy!

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